Global economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 4.2%, says OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says global economic growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged at 5.5% and 4.2% respectively, as of January.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo made this known Tuesday in an opening speech at his virtual 59th Joint Technical Committee meeting (videoconference).

Barkindo said he still sees healthy economic growth over the next two years, but is keeping his eyes on the current market volatility.

He noted that market volatility was driven by rising inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, central bank policy decisions and geopolitical developments.

Mr. Barkindo recalled that on January 29, the US Federal Reserve met and signaled that it would reverse the generous stimulus measures it had introduced in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Citing a strong labor market and rapidly rising inflation, the Fed said it will most likely raise interest rates in the coming months, potentially starting next month.

“This will be a year in which we gradually move away from the very accommodative monetary policy that we have put in place to deal with the economic effects of the pandemic,” he said, quoting Federal President Jerome Powell.

Mr. Barkindo noted that looking at the demand chart, he predicted an increase in global oil demand of 5.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2021 and 4.2 million barrels per day. day (mb/d), both unchanged from January.

According to him, the impact of the Omicron variant should be mild and short-lived, uncertainties remain about the potential development of new variants and new restrictions on mobility in the context of a constant global economic recovery.

On the supply side, he said non-OPEC supply in 2021 is expected to increase by 700,000 barrels per day to average 63.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), unchanged from last month. .

For 2022, he noted that non-OPEC supply growth was forecast at 3.0mb/d for an average of 66.7mb/d, also unchanged from last month.

“We also continue to assess the potential near-term impacts if some of the major consuming countries proceed with their announced plans to release approximately 70mb of their strategic oil reserves.

“Looking at inventories, preliminary data for December 2021 showed that total Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) commercial oil inventories fell by 31.2mb per month to 2,725mb. .

“That’s 311MB less than a year ago at the same time and 202MB less than the 2015-2019 average.

“Given the significant uncertainties surrounding the outlook for non-OPEC demand and supply growth, today we will review three scenarios that have been developed by the Secretariat to provide insight into the direction of the market.”

He noted that as of December 2021, OPEC-10 and participating non-OPEC countries had achieved overall compliance levels of 127% and 114%, respectively.

Barkindo added that overall compliance levels for OPEC-10 with participating non-OPEC countries was 122%.


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